I Developed a Formula for Predicting the Plot of Doctor Who Stories
RTD's Magic Formula
My relationship with Doctor Who is long and complicated. I started watching in the late 1980s, and haven’t missed an episode since. That’s not to say I enjoyed all of them, but at its best, it can be sublime – and anyway, for better or worse I am pathologically unable to look away.
As of this weekend, Doctor Who is back on television with a new series. Showrunner Russell T Davies (hereafter “RTD”) is back too, after his previous stint in the role from 2005-2010.
Sometime around 2010, I wrote an article about RTD’s “magic formula.”
Essentially, during the 2000s I had spotted a pattern in the way he structured each of his series of Doctor Who, which made it possible to predict, fairly accurately, the kind of themes and ideas which would feature in every upcoming episode.
As RTD launches now into his first new series of Doctor Who in 14 years, I thought it would be fun to dig that formula out again – and see if we can use it to predict the stories that will be airing over the coming weeks.
The Formula
Here it is.
Earth / Strange Earth / History / Nostalgia / Classic x2 / Fun / Clever /
Dark x2 / Scary / Reflection / Finale x2
1. Earth: Alien threat, a grounded human perspective, maybe a new family to meet, and hints of the upcoming series-long plot arc.
2. Strange Earth: Future Earth, or a human outpost in space. How humans interact with the universe. Usually the companion’s first time off-planet.
3. History: A visit to Earth in the past, meeting a famous historical character.
4. Nostalgia: An old friend or an old enemy reappears.
5 & 6. Classic (double): A familiar enemy is reintroduced and attacks the Earth, for a two-part story. This format can feel the most like Classic Who.
7. Fun: Upbeat tone, quirky adversary. May have comedy elements and/or a guest appearance from a famous comedian.
8. Clever: The mystery has to be solved in a certain way. May involve problems with time.
9 & 10. Dark (double): A two-part story set somewhere strange and troubling, removed from the companion’s world, and with a complicated threat. The stakes are personal rather than global. (You could believe it was based on a Virgin New Adventures novel.)
11. Scary: A stand-alone horror story. Some core characters may be absent.
12. Reflection: A look back at character development so far, while building towards and foreshadowing the finale. An alternative portrayal of a familiar character. (OR: a sports tie-in.)
13 & 14. Finale (double): A big pantomime with an extended main cast and at least one classic enemy threatening Earth. The stakes are always higher than the previous finale, but crisis is resolved by a deus ex machina. Some characters won’t remember events afterwards.
And how accurate is it? Take a look:
57 out of 68 = 84% accuracy.
Some notes:
You’ll see I included Series 5, which had Steven Moffat as showrunner. After he took over, initially Moffat played it safe and kept very close to RTD’s formula. He got a lot bolder later though, and started playing around with the format. He would open with two-parters; he split Series 6 and 7 into halves; Series 9 was six consecutive two-parters; then Series 10 had a three-part story right in the middle.
The Christmas Special preceding each series has been counted as Episode 1, as they usually introduce the characters and theme of the coming year. Series 1 and 5 were not preceded by Christmas stories though, hence they are shorter, and arranged with white gaps.
Interestingly though, those gaps are still thematically addressed by the previous stories (The Empty Child was scary; Daleks trigger nostalgia), so that each series is still hitting roughly the same beats in the same places.
Series 1 did nostalgia and a first double-parter in reversed order.
Series 2 went Clever / Classic / Fun instead of Classic / Fun / Clever.
Series 4 flips positions 1 and 2: the Titanic is transported off-world, followed by a grounded view of an Earth invasion.
Here are those deviations from the pattern marked with red arrows:
There are extended notes at the bottom, but as for what it means right now…
Predictions for Series 14
So Doctor Who is back, and RTD is back. However, this feels like a bit of a reboot. Not least because the numbering has been restarted so that this – Series 14 – is being officially referred to as “Season 1.” This is partly due to the involvement of Disney in this series, who wanted a fresh jumping-on point. Since sometime around the Matt Smith era the series has been making clear efforts to appeal more to US audiences, but they’ll be turning that up to 11 now: with Doctor Who streaming on the BBC in the UK, and on Disney+ in the US.
The new series will likely lean more towards magical / fantastical storytelling, rather than science (or pseudo-science) explanations.
There are lots of indications that the plan now is to play it safe. After some convoluted and heavily-panned story arcs, and years of diminishing viewer figures, the BBC is likely eager to return to the formula that earned them their peak viewership and cultural relevance, circa 2010. So they brought back RTD, and they even brought back David Tennant for a few episodes.
The BBC and Disney don’t want risk: they want accessibility and crowd-pleasers.
For that reason, I don’t think RTD is going to experiment with the formula. I think he’ll stick to what worked so well for him before:
Earth / Strange Earth / History / Nostalgia / Classic x2 / Fun / Clever /
Dark x2 / Scary / Reflection / Finale x2
However – the new format is not 14 episodes. It’s 9 episodes. (Again, I’m counting Christmas stories as Episode 1.) So this formula needs to be trimmed to fit.
Rather than having a Fun (but ultimately, filler) episode, I think all episodes will be more fun (even so far as song and dance, as we saw at Christmas).
Likewise, Nostalgia will be sprinkled throughout, so that no single story is preoccupied with the show’s past to the point of putting off new viewers.
There isn’t time for three double-parters, only two.
The themes usually explored in a Reflection episode will likely be condensed into the Finale.
So that leaves:
Earth / Strange Earth / History / Clever / Dark x2 / Scary / Finale x2
Here’s how that would look against the episode titles announced for this series:
The Church on Ruby Road – Earth
Space Babies – Strange Earth
The Devil's Chord – History
Boom – Clever
73 Yards – Dark 1
Dot and Bubble – Dark 2
Rogue – Scary
The Legend of Ruby Sunday – Finale 1
Empire of Death – Finale 2
Some thoughts on this:
I wanted to publish this article last week, but I got delayed. Two more episodes were released yesterday, so that’s three now including the Christmas story. So far, they all fit the plan.
The Church on Ruby Road introduced a new companion, their family, and saw the Earth attacked by aliens. It set up the series arc as a mystery surrounding Ruby’s origins / mother / “Mrs. Flood.” (Additional hints towards a series-long plot arc – the “Toymaker’s legions” – were previously dropped in The Giggle.)
Space Babies was Ruby’s first trip off-planet, and featured a human outpost in space in the distant future. There were thematic similarities with 5:2 (The Beast Below), while the shot of Ruby staring out a window into space felt identical to Rose’s first view of space in 1:2 (The End of the World). Again, like 1:2, the companion makes a telephone call home from future space.
The Devil’s Chord went back in time to 1963, and featured an appearance from The Beatles. Usually Episode 3 wouldn’t tie into the overall series arc, but this one did, which is a symptom of the compressed series length. By this point I’m also noticing a recurring background character who will probably prove significant. The Doctor talks about his granddaughter Susan, that recurring character is played by an actor called Susan Twist, and the episode ends with a musical number telling viewers to expect a twist. Hmm.
Anyway, so far so good.
Now here are my predictions for the remaining episodes:
Boom is one of two stories not written by RTD. It’s supposed to be clever according to the formula, and with Steven Moffat as writer it will probably feature a twisting plot and complicated rules. It won’t significantly advance the series arc.
73 Yards and Dot and Bubble will be a two-parter, featuring some dark / complicated threats. It will feature odd locations that are removed from Earth as we know it. I believe it will feature UNIT, and progress the series arc.
Rogue was written by Kate Herron and Briony Redman. There’s usually something scary at this point. However, in this shorter series the scary themes may just be rolled into the dark two-parter above. Herron previously worked on Loki, and this episode has the wonderful Indira Varma in it. I think it’s going to be quirky, with an unusual hook, and its resolution will likely lean into the arc for the finale.
The Legend of Ruby Sunday will be the first of a two-part finale, with elements of reflection: for example, comparing different choices, or different versions of a single character. It will drop some plot bombshells and end in a cliffhanger.
Empire of Death – The mystery box is opened. I expect the Daleks will turn up, though they’ll be working with someone unexpected. Earth is threatened by a nefarious plot and just when all seems lost, a previously unmentioned techno-gizmo will be used to save the day. Bombastic, emotional, and full of plot holes.
See you back here in six weeks, I guess…
Extended Notes on the Formula
1. Earth: Rose, The Christmas Invasion, The Runaway Bride and The Eleventh Hour all focus on grounded human perspectives as the earth is attacked by aliens – first mentions of ‘Bad Wolf,’ ‘Torchwood,’ ‘Mister Saxon,’ and ‘cracks in time’ respectively. (Voyage of the Damned features a cyborg villain in a wheelchair, foreshadowing a Davros finale.)
2. Strange Earth: The End of the World is about Earth’s destruction seen from space. New Earth and The Beast Below are set in weird future versions of Earth. Smith and Jones is set in an Earth hospital moved to the moon.
3. History: The Unquiet Dead features Charles Dickens; Tooth and Claw features Queen Victoria; The Shakespeare Code features William Shakespeare; Victory of the Daleks features Winston Churchill. The Fires of Pompeii is historical, but with no famous character.
4. Nostalgia: School Reunion brings back Sarah Jane Smith and K9. Gridlock features the Macra, last seen in 1967’s The Macra Terror. Then Planet of the Ood – the Ood are only two years old at this point, but it’s still a familiar face. Dalek is the corresponding episode in Series 1, but airs later.
5 & 6. Classic: A new enemy is the first to take this slot, but after that it’s Daleks, then Cybermen, then Sontarans, then the Weeping Angels.
7. Fun: The Long Game stars Simon Pegg and Tamsin Greig; The Lazarus Experiment has Spinal Tap jokes and stars Mark Gatiss; The Doctor’s Daughter is very silly; The Vampires of Venice is quite silly too.
8. Clever: Father’s Day, 42 and Amy’s Choice each feature an interesting dramatic concept relating to time. Series 2’s clever story, The Girl in the Fireplace, went out three episodes too early. Series 4’s The Unicorn and the Wasp involves solving a murder mystery.
9 & 10. Dark: A perfect fit every time. I was particularly impressed with the scheduling of 2006’s The Impossible Planet / The Satan Pit, a diabolical two-parter which was broadcast on either side of 6/6/6.
11. Scary: Blink and Midnight are two of the scariest episodes of New Who. Vincent and the Doctor is essentially framed as a horror story. Also interesting to note that 2:11 and 3:11 are both Doctor-lite stories while 4:11 is companion-lite. Love and Monsters also has the main cast mostly absent, but the less said about it the better.
12. Reflection: This is maybe the least robust entry in the formula. Boom Town and Turn Left are obvious character studies. Utopia is mostly just setting up its finale. But all three of them show different aspects of one single character (“Margaret” in Boom Town, the Master in Utopia, Donna in Turn Left). Interesting to note that 2:12 (Fear Her) and 5:12 (The Lodger), which don’t really fit the pattern, were both somewhat sporty, referencing the 2012 Summer Olympics and the 2010 FIFA World Cup respectively.
13 & 14. Finale: Daleks, then Daleks plus Cybermen, then the Master, then Davros. Each year, the stakes get higher – first the Earth is threatened, then the whole universe, and eventually reality itself (??!). Just when the crisis seems to reach the point of no possible return, some new piece of technology is abruptly introduced that can immediately undo everything and save the day – e.g. the ‘heart of the TARDIS,’ a ‘telepathic network,’ ‘paradox machine,’ ‘subwave network,’ or ‘warp star.’ (I was never a big fan of RTD’s finales...)